Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 18,040
2 New Jersey 16,201
3 Massachusetts 12,103
4 Rhode Island 11,534
5 Connecticut 10,121
6 District of Columbia 9,735
7 Delaware 7,571
8 Louisiana 7,278
9 Illinois 7,144
10 Maryland 6,137
11 Nebraska 5,051
12 Pennsylvania 5,013
13 Michigan 5,004
14 Iowa 4,452
15 South Dakota 4,393
16 Indiana 4,052
17 Colorado 3,682
18 Mississippi 3,629
19 Virginia 3,359
20 Georgia 3,319
21 Kansas 2,748
22 New Mexico 2,700
23 New Hampshire 2,547
24 Minnesota 2,526
25 Washington 2,525
26 Tennessee 2,477
27 Alabama 2,319
28 North Dakota 2,310
29 Ohio 2,306
30 Nevada 2,189
31 Utah 2,161
32 Florida 2,054
33 Wisconsin 2,035
34 California 1,949
35 Arizona 1,809
36 Missouri 1,721
37 Kentucky 1,696
38 North Carolina 1,639
39 South Carolina 1,632
40 Texas 1,620
41 Vermont 1,495
42 Arkansas 1,478
43 Idaho 1,336
44 Oklahoma 1,285
45 Wyoming 1,237
46 Maine 1,192
47 Oregon 839
48 West Virginia 807
49 Puerto Rico 795
50 Alaska 530
51 Hawaii 443
52 Montana 436

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Delaware 216
2 Massachusetts 197
3 Illinois 193
4 Rhode Island 190
5 District of Columbia 182
6 Nebraska 178
7 Connecticut 163
8 Maryland 161
9 Louisiana 128
10 New York 124
11 Iowa 120
12 New Jersey 118
13 Virginia 112
14 Minnesota 103
15 Mississippi 100
16 South Dakota 84
17 North Dakota 83
18 Indiana 79
19 Kansas 74
20 Pennsylvania 72
21 New Mexico 71
22 Wisconsin 70
23 Michigan 67
24 Arizona 65
25 Colorado 63
26 Alabama 61
27 Georgia 60
28 North Carolina 56
29 New Hampshire 55
30 Tennessee 55
31 Texas 53
32 California 49
33 Utah 49
34 Ohio 48
35 Nevada 46
36 Kentucky 42
37 Florida 34
38 Arkansas 33
39 Maine 31
40 South Carolina 31
41 Washington 31
42 Oklahoma 29
43 Puerto Rico 25
44 Missouri 24
45 Wyoming 23
46 Idaho 17
47 Oregon 14
48 West Virginia 12
49 Vermont 3
50 Alaska 2
51 Montana 1
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,426
2 New Jersey 1,141
3 Connecticut 921
4 Massachusetts 811
5 District of Columbia 521
6 Louisiana 512
7 Michigan 483
8 Rhode Island 452
9 Pennsylvania 346
10 Illinois 321
11 Maryland 316
12 Delaware 278
13 Indiana 251
14 Colorado 199
15 Mississippi 165
16 Georgia 147
17 Ohio 135
18 Washington 132
19 Minnesota 122
20 New Mexico 120
21 New Hampshire 116
22 Virginia 114
23 Nevada 112
24 Iowa 106
25 Alabama 98
26 Missouri 94
27 Arizona 89
28 Florida 89
29 Vermont 84
30 California 80
31 Kentucky 76
32 Wisconsin 76
33 South Carolina 73
34 Oklahoma 72
35 Kansas 64
36 Nebraska 63
37 North Carolina 62
38 North Dakota 55
39 Maine 51
40 South Dakota 49
41 Texas 44
42 Tennessee 42
43 Idaho 40
44 Puerto Rico 38
45 West Virginia 35
46 Arkansas 32
47 Oregon 32
48 Utah 24
49 Montana 14
50 Hawaii 12
51 Wyoming 12
52 Alaska 10

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 23
2 Connecticut 22
3 Massachusetts 21
4 District of Columbia 15
5 Pennsylvania 13
6 Illinois 12
7 Delaware 11
8 Rhode Island 11
9 Colorado 8
10 Maryland 8
11 New York 8
12 Louisiana 7
13 Indiana 5
14 Michigan 5
15 New Mexico 5
16 Arizona 4
17 Iowa 4
18 Minnesota 4
19 Mississippi 4
20 New Hampshire 4
21 Ohio 4
22 Alabama 3
23 Nebraska 3
24 Virginia 3
25 California 2
26 Florida 2
27 Georgia 2
28 Missouri 2
29 Nevada 2
30 North Carolina 2
31 Kansas 1
32 North Dakota 1
33 South Carolina 1
34 South Dakota 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Texas 1
37 Washington 1
38 West Virginia 1
39 Wisconsin 1
40 Alaska 0
41 Arkansas 0
42 Hawaii 0
43 Idaho 0
44 Kentucky 0
45 Maine 0
46 Montana 0
47 Oklahoma 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 Utah 0
51 Vermont 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 122,474 1 99
Dakota Nebraska 74,503 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 73,096 3 99
Nobles Minnesota 62,046 4 99
Lake Tennessee 57,155 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 5,774 248 92
Richland South Carolina 2,877 597 80
Pierce Washington 1,958 846 73
Orange California 1,311 1167 62
York South Carolina 997 1423 54

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Randolph Georgia 3,098 1 99
Terrell Georgia 2,813 2 99
Early Georgia 2,748 3 99
Essex New Jersey 1,890 4 99
Nassau New York 1,842 5 99
Richland South Carolina 144 496 84
Pierce Washington 73 805 74
Davidson Tennessee 62 899 71
Orange California 26 1280 59
York South Carolina 18 1431 54

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons